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For the trading day of tuesday, 2020 03 31
News at 10am ET.
Indexes: I have a bullish outlook for Tuesday’s session
Currencies: DX bearflag on 240min, giving us several long setups on major pairs
Commodities: GC, SI what looks liek bullish pressure building up
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min triggered
3pm ET update:
11am ET update:
For the trading day of Monday, 2020 03 30
No News.
Indexes: bearish outlook
Currencies: DX expect volatility contraction, no clear setup on major pairs
Commodities: GC, SI moving within large range-bound area, no setup, CL expect new lows
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min triggered
1pm ET update: long on ZB, NQ
9am ET update: bullish pre-session price action on the indexes. Conflicting DX.
For the trading day of Friday, 2020 03 27
News at 8.30am ET.
Indexes: short on ES
Currencies: DX retesting previous support, 6J short setting up
Commodities: GC bullflag against resistance on 240min, CL short
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min triggered
1pm ET update:
12pm ET update:
For the trading day of thursday, 2020 03 26
News at 8.30am ET. (Job report, potentially market moving!)
Indexes: short on ES
Currencies: DX retesting previous support, 6J short setting up
Commodities: GC bullflag against resistance on 240min, CL short setting up
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min triggered
2pm ET update:
8am ET update:
For the trading day of wednesday, 2020 03 25
Welcome, new subscribers! Make sure you read the Documentation!
News at 8.30am ET. (new users: we don’t trade - and try not to be in an intraday position) 10 min before and after major news)
Indexes: the world talked about the ‘biggest move in history’ yesterday. It was not that big on our RRR (with a setting of 1). That means it was not unusual in the current market context (which is what matters). Our work separates us from the crowd.
Currencies: bullflag on DX, short setups on several currencies against the USD: 6E, 6B, 6S, 6A
Commodities: GC back in business: bullflag against resistance on 240min. SI waking up
Financials: ZB beautiful complex bullflag on 240min
2pm ET update: see comments in email
9.30am update:
For the trading day of tuesday, 2020 03 24
News 9.45 ET, 10am ET.
Indexes:
Currencies: short setups on several currencies against the USD: 6E, 6B, 6S
Commodities: GC monitoring for bullflag, SI waking up
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min has triggered
3pm ET update: 6E managing short
10am ET update:
For the trading day of Monday, 2020 03 23
No News.
Notes: the crisis continues. Expect weakness and extreme unpredictability on US indexes.
Indexes: Gap down. Expect weakness on US indexes. The 10 year old bull market can be declared over.
Currencies: 6B short setting up
Commodities: CL expect further weakness
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min has triggered, on daily about to trigger
1pm ET update: new Fed measures seem to move GC. Continued weakness on the ES.
9am ET update: indexes (ES) likely to test yesterday’s high. Overall context, though, is still strongly bearish. Potential short-term long setting up on GC. Bullflag on ZB.
For the trading day of friday, 2020 03 20
News at 10.00am ET.
Notes: DX continues to rip, monitor major pairs for shorts
Indexes: serious bottom tails indicate buying. Don’t totally dismiss the possibility of a sudden rally back to the 50%.
Currencies: monitor for shorts on major pairs against the USD (which looks like what we expected GC to look like a few weeks ago :) )
Commodities: CL a retest of the lows expected
Financials: ZB monitoring a bullflag
Cryptos: another short setting up
4pm ET update:
For the trading day of thursday, 2020 03 19
News at 8.30am ET.
Indexes: waiting for the ultimate bottom tail, the flush
Currencies: overwhelming DX strength, free fall on major pairs
Commodities: GC, SI continue to NOT behave like safe havens. SI at USD11
Financials:
Cryptos: another short setting up
For the trading day of Wednesday, 2020 03 18
News at 8.30am, 10.30am (CL) ET.
Indexes: expect weakness
Currencies: DX potential failure test on daily (monitoring LTF for clues), 6J long setting up
Commodities: GC, SI continue to NOT behave like safe havens. SI short setting up
Financials: ZN bullflag
Cryptos: BTC short
4pm ET update:
8am ET update: trading on the indexes halted, CL short working
For the trading day of Tuesday, 2020 03 17
Notes: increased volatility regime continues. This means you need larger stops and/or smaller or no positions. Micro contracts are an alternative as well. On the indexes, expect more downside, this is not over yet. We’ll continue to monitor for technical setups, including currencies.
News at 8.30am, 9.15am ET.
Indexes: expect weakness
Currencies: 6S long setup
Commodities: GC, SI continue to NOT behave like safe havens.
Financials:
4pm update: we’re watching for a potential failure test on the DX. and a flush on CL.
For the trading day of Monday, 2020 03 16
Notes: no need to describe the immensity of the situation, worldwide. We need to adapt and stay safe. Expect volatility, probably like not seen in recent memory. Do not bleed capital! It is okay to stay out, go to the micros, or do all-important but often neglected work, e.g. verify your edge. If you don’t have a written trading plan, do it now.
News at 8.30am, 9.15am ET. Also: FED cut rates to 0 (https://tinyurl.com/trhgu43)
Indexes: expect weakness
Currencies: 6S long
Commodities: GC gaps up, SI no move, CL weakness
Financials: ZB/ZN bullflag
12noon ET update: markets falling inspite of unprecedented FED stimulus. Historic times. GC/SI fail to function as value reserves. What remains is: ZB, for now. To be in cash is completely okay in these circumstances. One thing: stay with the markets, opportunities will arise, and you’ll want to be here when they do!
For the trading day of Friday, 2020 03 13
No News.
Notes: We’re at the end of an extraordinary week, which started with a 20-point gap down on the ES at 6pm last Sunday (See our post at the time: we noted it at the time because we hadn’t had such a gap down in many years!) That said, we didn’t and couldn’t foresee the magnitude of this week’s events. We’re now in the midst of a global public health crisis. Markets will need time to process all the unfolding information thrown at them. Plus it’s Friday, going into the weekend. Our job is not to to do something no matter what, our job is to do the right thing at the right time, so no trades planned for today, unless absolutely warranted and intraday. We’ve been doing well this year, we will continue to monitor the markets and will get involved at the right time. Stay safe.
Indexes: mean reversion
Currencies: DX strength, long setup on 6S
Commodities: GC, SI bearish, CL slight bounce
Financials: ZB retracement after overextended move
For the trading day of thursday, 2020 03 12
News at 8.30am ET.
Notes: markets under extreme stress after presidential TV speech. We are navigating unseen terrain successfully, see below.
Indexes: freefall, good short on ES
Currencies: DX weakness, long on major pairs, but be mindful of correlation
Commodities: GC not moving, SI bearflag, potential measured move (markets likely being manipulated, but we’ll deal with it), good short on CL
Financials: long on ZB
4pm ET update: This market needs a little time to build a base wherever that base will be. A major re-balancing on several markets: equities (ES, etc.), commodities (CL, GC, SI) and currencies (see DX, 6E, 6A etc.). We need to give it a few days.
For the trading day of Wednesday, 2020 03 11
News at 8.30am, 10.30am ET.
Notes: markets under extreme stress. A unique situation so past examples help little. Capital preservation mode.
Indexes: a bounce expected (bearflag) potentially setting up another short
Currencies:
Commodities: GC bullflag, long triggered on 240min
Financials: ZB bullflag on 240min
For the trading day of tuesday, 2020 03 10
No News.
Notes: markets under extreme stress
Indexes: a bounce expected (bearflag) potentially setting up another short
Currencies: 6C continued weakness, 6E, 6J, 6S reached targets
Commodities: no change since yesterday
Financials: no change since yesterday
1pm ET update: shorts on 6C, ES
For the trading day of Monday, 2020 03 09
No News.
Notes: obvious signs of markets in major transition: see our scanner below. Extreme volatility (RRR) readings on many markets (CL, ZB). Many markets outside the Keltner (signalling extreme moves).
Details: CL 7.5 RRR down, ES breaks Oct 2019 support, 100 points down from Friday’s close. ZB (the ultimate safe haven) strength unseen in recent history. GC breaking above 1700. Extreme volatility on several FX markets. Now: increased volatility is something we, generally, welcome, we need markets to move so we can make money. But this may be a bit too much of a good thing, so caution is advised. First rule: do NOT chase price. Always wait for some consolidation (pullback) on your timeframe to enter. We’ll tread with caution, and we’re confident our methodology will continue to work in this new environment.
Indexes: huge downgap, expect increased volatility, do not take a ‘free fall’ for granted, sudden snapbacks must be expected. Not a market that can be traded with small stops.
Currencies: 6C falls (CL related), 6E, 6J, 6S reached our targets and more. Waiting for what’s next.
Commodities: GC strong, SI curiously is lagging - or simply not in sync - behind GC. GC long looks safe, caution is advised on SI due to its unexpected behaviour
Financials: ZB historic rip. Sign of overall market stress not seen in many years.
3.30pm ET update: short on ES
9.30am ET update: markets under extreme stress
For the trading day of friday, 2020 03 06
News at 8.30am ET.
Notes: all our identified setups (on currencies, metals and treasuries) worked today except for 6N. Any methodology that can handle a tumultuous market environment that we are in currently deserves respect. Ours can and how! (see below).
Indexes: below the 50% retracement area, bulls not in control
Currencies: DX weakness, 6E, 6J, 6S trades worked well, targets reached.
Commodities: GC, SI in full force
Financials: ZB good long today, target reached
4pm ET update: GC, SI bullish consolidations, potential move (or gap up) Sunday on the ETH open. ES: holding on to current levels (which is not a bullish sign). And our weekly results to date in 2020.
8am ET update: our overnight trades (ES, 6E) working well, GC, 6S, 6J as expected, SI lagging
For the trading day of thursday, 2020 03 05
News at 8.30am ET.
Indexes: trying to break above 50% retracement
Currencies: DX weakness: 6E, 6J, 6A, 6S long
Commodities: GC bullflag on 240min
Financials: ZB/ZN ongoing strength, no real pullback to join
Notes: some of the setups below may trigger before the open
4pm ET update: GC, SI, 6E as expected. ES (bulls failed) as expected.
7am ET update: several of our setups triggered overnight: GC, SI, ZB, ZN and currencies against the USD. We’re rolling. See ZB below for an example of how to translate a 240min trade to smaller timeframes.
For the trading day of wednesday, 2020 03 04
News at 10.30am ET (CL).
Notes: Fed rate cut today helped GC anc treasuriers more than the indexes.
Indexes: a re-test of the lows likely. From there: who have to wait and see.
Currencies: 6E long (240m), 6N short (240min), BTC short (daily)
Commodities: GC recovering strongly, back to ‘normal’ (which is bullish)
Financials: ZB/ZN acting like safe havens, and indicative of market weakness
11.30am ET update: Higher GC prices expected. ES: bulls need to break above 3100 to re-gain control of this market. In short: transition amidst global uncertainty after yesterday’s rate cut. We’re watching closely for clues.
For the trading day of tuesday, 2020 03 03
No News.
Notes: we’ll look at the pre-market action, after the Far East and Europe opened, and will take it from there.
Indexes: we’re neutral and monitoring.
Currencies: DX weakness
Commodities: GC, SI can they come back?
Financials: ZB/ZN strong, will not chase them
3.30pm ET update: The unexpected FED announcement (basically, a cash injection into the markets to calm nerves) at 10am moved GC back to the ‘default’ bullishness, while we have to wait to see if it does what it was intended to: to calm the (equity) markets. Right now, we’re half of the halfway on the ES our long way of recovery (if that’s what’s next).
With a couple of days behind us after last week’s shock, we are now ready to tackle what the markets may throw at us next.
9.30am ET update:
For the trading day of Monday, 2020 03 02
News at 10am ET.
Notes: last week’s events are historic and unexpected in their vehemence and proportions. GC, SI’s performance is surprising. Equity markets may go anywhere from here. ZB’s move indicate a further drop in the markets is probable. We are not planning positions for Monday, but will follow the markets (equities, commodities, currencies) closely.
Indexes: waiting for clues
Currencies: 6C potential short (240min), 6S long (60min)
Commodities:
Financials: ZB/ZN hyberbolic
10am ET update:
