For educational purposes only. No information on this page constitutes investment advice. By accessing this page you agree to the Terms and conditions.

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Actionable market insight for technically motivated directional traders

  • I'm new to this. Where do I start?

    Start with the Documentation. See link above. Then you may want to read through the documentation of our software products to see how we go about interacting with the markets.

  • When is this page updated?

    We update this page, with our plan and outlook for the next trading day, by midnight Eastern Time prior to every trading session on the US futures markets. We also post updates as necessary during the day (see 'intraday' folder).

  • Your charts are too big for me

    This is the most frequent comment we receive. Consider the following:


    a) It's important to ask the question: why do we want to trade a given timeframe. If because that's where our edge is, fine. But if we want to trade a timeframe because that's what we think is the only thing we have money for, we're in trouble. We have to pick timeframe not based on our wishes, but on where our verified edge is.

    b) Ok, is there some good news?

    Yes, lots:

    - With us, you'll be trading with an edge. (Without an edge, there is no point in risking a single dollar on the markets.)

    - Now, most of our trades are intraday trades, the 240min timeframe still being six times less than a day.

    - Also, many of our 240min trade ideas can be adapted to even smaller timeframes by simply waiting for the next pullback on the lower timeframe (LTF) after the 240min trigger.

    - Also, many of our trade ideas are on currency futures. On relatively small accounts, they can be executed on forex, which allows more granular risk management.

    - Many of our trade ideas can also be executed on ETFs: say, GLD for a GC trade or TLT for bond futures.

    - Finally, on smaller accounts trades can be executed with micro contracts (MES, MGC etc.). While some will say "that way you can't make money", our answer is: but one will learn to fish, and that's worth all the money!

    It is clear our service allows the capital accumulation process to be implemented on any reasonably-sized account.

  • What do "technically motivated" and "directional" mean?

    Technically motivated traders make trading/investing decisions based on what price has done in the past. We, as technically motivated traders, do not normally include macroeconomic or fundamental factors (e.g. a given company's financials) into our thinking. We hold the view that patterns can be uncovered in price behaviour alone that have predictive value.

    Directional traders expect price to move up or down. For directional traders to make money, price needs to move. Note: there are non-directional trading styles as well, although those are beyond the scope of our focus on these pages.

  • Miscellaneous notes

    - Make sure you read the Documentation, become familiar with our Market Scanner, and follow the markets every day to build intuition to make best use of this service.

    - We tend to scale back activities on the indexes leading up to FOMC releases, while being aware that the FOMC news release can often serve as a catalyst. We also stay out of intraday trades 10 minutes before and after of major news releases.

    - We're often wrong. After all, we work with probabilities, and this work is all about the future, the yet unknown. We judge our work not by how many times we're right or wrong, but - to paraphrase one of the best traders of all time - by 'how much we make when we're right and how much we lose when we're wrong'.

Please note: instead of the live trade rooms, we’ll upload one video about an important aspect of successful trading weekly or as warranted, solely for Premium subscribers. Send in your comments or questions you’d like to be covered in this new video series. Put “Premium videos” in the subject line. Thanks!

Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

US Futures at a glance

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 05 31

No News

No change since yesterday, no video tonight.

Indexes: no new information
Currencies: no new information.
Commodities: GC, SI shorts off the table, CL long off the table (no trades, no harm in this asset class)
Financials: short setup, monitoring
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2023 05 30

News at 10am

Indexes: we know the job: indexes likely keep on marching
Currencies: 6J, 6E, 6B monitoring for shorts, DX strength continues.
Commodities: GC, SI short setups, CL potential measured move
Financials: short or monitor for short
Agriculturals: ZC moves

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2023 05 29

US Memorial Day. Markets closed.

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 05 26

News at 8.30am

Indexes: NQ marches on.
Currencies: 6J (slide), 6E, 6B monitoring for shorts, DX strength continues.
Commodities:
Financials: slide (meaning: hard to join)
Agriculturals: ZC bullflag, potential failure test on ZS

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 05 25

News at 8.30am

Indexes: NQ, YM go separate ways.
Currencies: 6J, 6E, 6B 1R, DX strength continues.
Commodities: monitoring CL for a long
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 05 24

News at 10.30am (CL), 2PM FOMC

Note: 2pm expected to be a catalyst. Not planning trades in the morning session.

Indexes: FOMC Wednesday 2pm could be catalyst. Expected to move higher after the dust settles.
Currencies: 6J, 6E, 6B about 0.5-0.7R profits removed, you should be flat.
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 05 23

News at 9.45am, 10am ET. Note: FOMC on Wednesday!

Indexes: no new information. The weekly structure is most likely in control. Smaller timeframes are noisy. FOMC Wednesday 2pm could be catalyst.
Currencies: 6J, 6E, 6B monitoring for shorts, watching MBT for long
Commodities: monitoring CT, KC for long, short setups on GC, SI
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 05 22

No News. (Victoria Day in Canada.)

Indexes: if you’re long, manage your position. If not yet, look for the next opportunity. Be ready for surprises, as always.
Currencies: 6J, 6E, 6B monitoring for shorts, watching MBT for long
Commodities: monitoring CT for long
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2023 05 19

No News

Note: tonight we’re counting the money. A Friday, scaling back, making sure we’re closing a good week. No video necessary.

Indexes: a good day today, expect consolidation tomorrow: do not give back what you made today. But also: keep an eye on RTY/YM, they’re likely to catch up with ES/NQ. And remember: the move is only starting on the weekly! The move of the year, we said, and it looks like it!
Currencies: 6J, 6E 1Rs, watching MBT for long
Commodities: monitoring CT for pullback
Financials: ZB cca 1R, take it
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 05 18

News at 8.30am, 10am ET

Indexes: it was our day today. Keep focused!
Currencies: 6J, 6E 1Rs: our day here as well, watching MBT for long
Commodities: monitoring CT, SI flat with 0.5R
Financials: monitoring for short trigger
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 05 17

News at 8.30am, 10.30am ET

Indexes: no change since yesterday. Note the divergence (in direction) between NQ and YM. What it means, we’ll know soon.
Currencies: 6J, 6E shorts in progress
Commodities: GC 1R (although we skipped it), SI short in progress
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZW monitoring for long trigger

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 05 16

News at 8.30am, 9.15am ET

Indexes: NQ looks best for a breakout from the range. News may be catalyst.
Currencies: 6J short setup, lesson on pullbacks
Commodities: GC holds, SI short setup (lesson on timeframes). KC weekly bullflag, energies expected to move up but no clear setup
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZW monitoring for long breakout

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 05 15

No News

Indexes: not much clarity, waiting for hints from the market. Maintaining bullish bias, ready if the market breaks out.
Currencies: DX strength, standing by
Commodities: GC holds, SI less so (inverse correlation with DX). Standing by.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 05 12

No News

No change since yesterday, focusing on NQ, ES, no video tonight

Indexes: no change since yesterday: focusing on NQ breakout, ES long
Currencies: lack of clarity, standing by
Commodities: HG 1R
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 05 11

News at 8.30am

Indexes: no change since yesterday
Currencies: long setups
Commodities: SI long in progress, CL breakout setup, HG long setup
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 05 10

News at 8.30am, 10.30am (energies)

Indexes: 8.30am news likely catalyst
Currencies: long setup on 6J,6A, 6B
Commodities: SI long in progress, CL breakout setup
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long setup on ZW

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2023 05 09

No News

Indexes: longs in progress
Currencies: long setup on 6J.
Commodities: SI long in progress
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 05 08

No News

Indexes: reason to be long
Currencies: longs done or in progress on 6E, 6B, 6S, 6A/6N.
Commodities: GC more upside expected, SI long in progress
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 05 05

News AT 8.30am ET

Indexes: standing by neutral (we don’t think the bulls are done though)
Currencies: longs in progress 6E, 6B, 6S, 6A, MBT/BTC long in progress
Commodities: GC longs not done yet, SI long in progress
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 05 04

News AT 8.30am ET

Indexes: standing by neutral (we don’t think the bulls are done though)
Currencies: longs in progress 6E, 6B, 6S. Watch 6J for potential measured move on weekly. Monitor further weakness on DX in coming days.
Commodities: GC 1R, SI long in progress, potential failure test on CL
Financials: ZB/ZN move up as expected
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2023 05 03

News 2pm FOMC! Usual rules apply. Expect a catalyst.

Indexes: most likely a buying opportunity
Currencies: long in progress or setting up on several major pairs, 6E, 6B, 6S, 6A
Commodities: GC, SI longs in progress or setting up depending on your timeframe
Financials: failure test, monitoring for longs
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 05 02

News at 10am

Note: No video necessary, continue to focus and be long on the ES/NQ/YM.

Indexes: no change in strategy since yesterday
Currencies: cross-currents. As always: no trigger, no trade. See yesterday’s notes.
Commodities: GC, SI monitoring for longs.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by

FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 05 01

News at 10am

Indexes: REASON (in capital letters) to be long, see targets on weekly timeframes. The task is to make the most of this while staying within your risk rules. No setup, however enticing is reason to go reckless. One sided markets can fall over, although that likelyhood as at this time rather slim. Let the 4hr or larger charts guide you, there will be no doubt a lot of traps set by professionals on smaller charts. (Shaking off weak hands is part of their job description.)
Currencies: 6B, 6E, 6A/6N, 6S monitoring for longs or longs in progress. Note the action on 6J.
Commodities: GC, SI monitoring for longs.
Financials: longs setting up
Agriculturals: standing by

Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.