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Actionable market insight for technically motivated directional traders
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I'm new to this. Where do I start?
Start with the Documentation. See link above. Then you may want to read through the documentation of our software products to see how we go about interacting with the markets.
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When is this page updated?
We update this page, with our plan and outlook for the next trading day, by midnight Eastern Time prior to every trading session on the US futures markets. We also post updates as necessary during the day (see 'intraday' folder).
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Your charts are too big for me
This is the most frequent comment we receive. Consider the following:
a) It's important to ask the question: why do we want to trade a given timeframe. If because that's where our edge is, fine. But if we want to trade a timeframe because that's what we think is the only thing we have money for, we're in trouble. We have to pick timeframe not based on our wishes, but on where our verified edge is.
b) Ok, is there some good news?
Yes, lots:
- With us, you'll be trading with an edge. (Without an edge, there is no point in risking a single dollar on the markets.)
- Now, most of our trades are intraday trades, the 240min timeframe still being six times less than a day.
- Also, many of our 240min trade ideas can be adapted to even smaller timeframes by simply waiting for the next pullback on the lower timeframe (LTF) after the 240min trigger.
- Also, many of our trade ideas are on currency futures. On relatively small accounts, they can be executed on forex, which allows more granular risk management.
- Many of our trade ideas can also be executed on ETFs: say, GLD for a GC trade or TLT for bond futures.
- Finally, on smaller accounts trades can be executed with micro contracts (MES, MGC etc.). While some will say "that way you can't make money", our answer is: but one will learn to fish, and that's worth all the money!
It is clear our service allows the capital accumulation process to be implemented on any reasonably-sized account. -
What do "technically motivated" and "directional" mean?
Technically motivated traders make trading/investing decisions based on what price has done in the past. We, as technically motivated traders, do not normally include macroeconomic or fundamental factors (e.g. a given company's financials) into our thinking. We hold the view that patterns can be uncovered in price behaviour alone that have predictive value.
Directional traders expect price to move up or down. For directional traders to make money, price needs to move. Note: there are non-directional trading styles as well, although those are beyond the scope of our focus on these pages.
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Miscellaneous notes
- Make sure you read the Documentation, become familiar with our Market Scanner, and follow the markets every day to build intuition to make best use of this service.
- We tend to scale back activities on the indexes leading up to FOMC releases, while being aware that the FOMC news release can often serve as a catalyst. We also stay out of intraday trades 10 minutes before and after of major news releases.
- We're often wrong. After all, we work with probabilities, and this work is all about the future, the yet unknown. We judge our work not by how many times we're right or wrong, but - to paraphrase one of the best traders of all time - by 'how much we make when we're right and how much we lose when we're wrong'.
Please note: instead of the live trade rooms, we’ll upload one video about an important aspect of successful trading weekly or as warranted, solely for Premium subscribers. Send in your comments or questions you’d like to be covered in this new video series. Put “Premium videos” in the subject line. Thanks!
Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
US Futures at a glance
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2023 10 31
News at 10am ET
Indexes: short setups on 240m ES, NQ, RTY
Currencies: short setups/trades in progress on 6E, 6B. Reason to be long on BTC/MBT.
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI
Financials: flat
Agriculturals: short setup on ZL, short in progress on ZC
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF monday, 2023 10 30
No News.
Indexes: 1R on YM. Flat.
Currencies: short setups/trades in progress on 6E, 6B. Reason to be long on BTC/MBT.
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI
Financials: flat
Agriculturals: short setups on ZC, ZL, potential measured move on ZS
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF FRIDAY, 2023 10 27
News at 8.30am, 10am ET
Indexes: flat. There could be one more short on YM, monitoring for trigger.
Currencies: frustrating session on 6E, 6B, but trades valid. Trailing MBT.
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI, and energies. Do not leave money on your 2023 table. Monitoring NG (you could be long already.)
Financials: flat
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 10 26
News at 8.30am ET
Join us at 12noon ET for our quantitative workshop!
Indexes: 1Rs on the indexes. The 8.30am news may trigger a further meltdown.
Currencies: short setups/in progress on 6E, 6B. Trailing MBT
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI
Financials: ZB/ZN longs dropped
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2023 10 25
News at 10am, 10.40am ET
Indexes: short setups, monitoring for trigger
Currencies: short setups on 6E, 6B
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI, KC rallies on
Financials: buy anti on ZB/ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 10 24
News at 9.45am ET.
Indexes: watching for signs of market turning.
Currencies: standing by on majors. 1R on weekly MBT!
Commodities: Long setups on GC/SI
Financials: buy anti on ZB/ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF monday, 2023 10 23
No News.
Indexes: 1R shorts on ES, NQ completed. Standing by.
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Watching 6B, 6E for shorts. Long on MBT.
Commodities: Watching metals for longs.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2023 10 20
No News.
Indexes: short setups
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Watching 6B, 6E for shorts. Long on MBT.
Commodities: Watching metals and energies for more longs.
Financials: 1R on ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 10 19
News at 8.30am, 10am ET
Indexes: short setups
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Shorts setting up on major pairs, e.g. 6B
Commodities: SI 1R, KC, energies long in progress.
Financials: 1R on ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 10 18
News at 8.30am, 10.30am ET
Note: workshop at 12. Join us!
Indexes: RTY bullflag failing. Reason to be long or consider long on the indexes.
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Shorts setting up on major pairs, e.g. 6B
Commodities: RB, CL, HO, GC, SI, KC longs in progress.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 10 17
News at 8.30am, 9.15am ET
Note: important lessons in this video. The three skills below are cornerstones of how we read the markets, how we prepare and execute trades.
Insisting on a trigger (ZC).
Monitoring for pattern failure to strengthen case (RTY).
Reading RRR to forecast re-emergence (KC)
We could add a forth one: reading the DX and correlation (currencies)
Indexes: guided by weekly bullflag. Watching RTY for clues.
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Shorts setting up on 6E, 6A, 6B, 6S
Commodities: RB, GC, SI, KC long setups
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 10 16
No News
Indexes: guided by weekly bullflag. Watching RTY for clues.
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Shorts in progress or setting up on 6E, 6A, 6N, 6S
Commodities: CL, HO, RB longs in progress. Watching GC/SI
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZC long setup
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2023 10 13
No News
Indexes: guided by weekly bullflag. Watching RTY (which stands apart from the other three right now.)
Currencies: DX bullflag in progress. Expecting measured move on 6E.
Commodities: energies ready to move up: CL, HO, RB. Watching GC/SI: moving up on DX strength is a very bullish sign. NG: bullflag
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 10 12
News at 8.30am, 11am ET
Indexes: guided by weekly bullflag. Structure trades based on account size, risk rules.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. 7th green candle on daily 6S: what is next?
Commodities: energies ready to move up: CL, HO, RB
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 10 11
News AT 8.30am ET. FOMC at 2pm.
Indexes: Reason to be bullish, but be mindful of volatility around FOMC release.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. Watching DX: IF moves up, THEN look for shorts on majors. ELSE do nothing. But: 6S potential long breakout
Commodities: energies ready to move up: CL, HO, RB
Financials: standing by, FOMC may be catalyst
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 10 10
No News.
Indexes: Be on the lookout for an upside move.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. Watching DX: IF moves up, THEN look for shorts on majors. ELSE do nothing
Commodities: energies monitoring for measured move on CL, HO
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long setup on ZC dropped.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF mONDAY, 2023 10 09
No News. Columbus Day. (Thanksgiving Day in Canada). Expect lower volumes, but potentially bigger moves. The only new factor is the war in Israel, which is likely to effect energy prices. No video necessary.
Indexes: Be on the lookout for an upside move.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. Not pursuing shorts on majors (and we may be wrong but that’s okay, we’re loaded elsewhere).
Commodities: energies may rally (international factors). Good reading on NG, which continues to rally. Short setup (breakout) on KC.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long setup on ZC.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2023 10 06
News at 8.30am ET.
Indexes: a slight hint that the bearflags may be failing. Be on the lookout for an upside move.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly.
Commodities: 1R/measured move on NG 240min.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: 1R on ZC.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2023 10 05
News at 8.30am ET.
Note: little new information, no video necessary.
Indexes: standing by for clues
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly.
Commodities: Reason to consider long on NG.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: Monitoring potential ZC breakout.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2023 10 04
News at various times in the morning, pay attention.
Workshop at 12noon ET! Join us!
Indexes: breaking down, next pivots below likely to get tested. Flat.
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. 1R on 6E. DX working on next leg up. Watching 6N
Commodities: HO long setup (RB breakdown warning sign?), Monitoring NG for a long breakout.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: Monitoring potential ZC breakout.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF TUESDAY, 2023 10 03
No News
No video tonight, no new information.
Indexes: timeframe conflict, monitoring for clues, no new information
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly (1R and more on 240m). Shorts in progress on 6N, 6A. 1R on 6E.
Commodities: HO long setup, Monitoring NG for a long breakout. GC move reflects USD strength.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF MONDAY, 2023 10 02
News at 10am
Indexes: timeframe conflict, monitoring for clues (and signs of a possible Santa Claus rally)
Currencies: Long on MBT weekly. Monitoring for short on 6N, 6A. 6J triggers.
Commodities: HO long setup, RB dropped from watch list. Monitoring NG for a long breakout
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.