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Actionable market insight for technically motivated directional traders
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I'm new to this. Where do I start?
Start with the Documentation. See link above. Then you may want to read through the documentation of our software products to see how we go about interacting with the markets.
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When is this page updated?
We update this page, with our plan and outlook for the next trading day, by midnight Eastern Time prior to every trading session on the US futures markets. We also post updates as necessary during the day (see 'intraday' folder).
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Your charts are too big for me
This is the most frequent comment we receive. Consider the following:
a) It's important to ask the question: why do we want to trade a given timeframe. If because that's where our edge is, fine. But if we want to trade a timeframe because that's what we think is the only thing we have money for, we're in trouble. We have to pick timeframe not based on our wishes, but on where our verified edge is.
b) Ok, is there some good news?
Yes, lots:
- With us, you'll be trading with an edge. (Without an edge, there is no point in risking a single dollar on the markets.)
- Now, most of our trades are intraday trades, the 240min timeframe still being six times less than a day.
- Also, many of our 240min trade ideas can be adapted to even smaller timeframes by simply waiting for the next pullback on the lower timeframe (LTF) after the 240min trigger.
- Also, many of our trade ideas are on currency futures. On relatively small accounts, they can be executed on forex, which allows more granular risk management.
- Many of our trade ideas can also be executed on ETFs: say, GLD for a GC trade or TLT for bond futures.
- Finally, on smaller accounts trades can be executed with micro contracts (MES, MGC etc.). While some will say "that way you can't make money", our answer is: but one will learn to fish, and that's worth all the money!
It is clear our service allows the capital accumulation process to be implemented on any reasonably-sized account. -
What do "technically motivated" and "directional" mean?
Technically motivated traders make trading/investing decisions based on what price has done in the past. We, as technically motivated traders, do not normally include macroeconomic or fundamental factors (e.g. a given company's financials) into our thinking. We hold the view that patterns can be uncovered in price behaviour alone that have predictive value.
Directional traders expect price to move up or down. For directional traders to make money, price needs to move. Note: there are non-directional trading styles as well, although those are beyond the scope of our focus on these pages.
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Miscellaneous notes
- Make sure you read the Documentation, become familiar with our Market Scanner, and follow the markets every day to build intuition to make best use of this service.
- We tend to scale back activities on the indexes leading up to FOMC releases, while being aware that the FOMC news release can often serve as a catalyst. We also stay out of intraday trades 10 minutes before and after of major news releases.
- We're often wrong. After all, we work with probabilities, and this work is all about the future, the yet unknown. We judge our work not by how many times we're right or wrong, but - to paraphrase one of the best traders of all time - by 'how much we make when we're right and how much we lose when we're wrong'.
Please note: instead of the live trade rooms, we’ll upload one video about an important aspect of successful trading weekly or as warranted, solely for Premium subscribers. Send in your comments or questions you’d like to be covered in this new video series. Put “Premium videos” in the subject line. Thanks!
Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
US Futures at a glance
Note: IB 1 = inside bar (daily), IB 2 = two consecutive inside bars. Data supplied by Remek! Inside Bar.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 03 29
Easter. Markets closed
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Thursday, 2024 03 28
News at 8.30am, 10am EDT (expect a catalyst)
Note: see notes in our blog, and on days like these, remember the Japanese saying: “After victory, tighten your helmet.” In today’s English: “Never let your guard down even if you think you have won.”
Indexes: “this market is - most likely - going up, reason to be positioned” - we said this yesterday. See charts today. Note: NQ expected to catch up.
Currencies: MBT long setup on 240m
Commodities: GC long breakout expected, RB, CL longs on daily intact.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Wednesday, 2024 03 27
News at 10.30am (energies)
Indexes: this market is - most likely - going up, reason to be positioned
Currencies: MBT long setup on 240m
Commodities: GC long breakout expected, RB, CL longs on daily intact, but HO 240m bearflag did NOT fail! Manage any open positions on RB, CL at least to breakeven.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 03 26
News at 8.30am, 10am EDT
Indexes: long setups and/or longs in progress (ES, NQ look best), depending on the timeframes (daily/240m)
Currencies: standing by
Commodities: RB, CL longs in progress, HO bearflag failing (?)
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2024 03 25
News.
Indexes: long setup on 240m NQ. Caution: the others do not look that strong.
Currencies: standing by
Commodities: RB long setup by CL, HO look weak
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 03 22
No News.
Note: looks like a quiet Friday. No video necessary.
Indexes: consolidation at new highs, manage existings longs if any
Currencies: standing by
Commodities: CL, RB long setups on 240m
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long in progress ZL
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF thursday, 2024 03 21
No News.
Note: another FOMC, another good call. It pays to listen to us. The accuracy of our calls is about 75% so far this year. Combined with a 1R win/loss ratio (and sometimes a few runners here and there), that’s a solid edge.
Indexes: FOMC behind us. See yesterday’s video.
Currencies: monitoring 6C. Long setup on 6E. Looking to reenter on MBT.
Commodities: CL, RB longs in progress.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long in progress ZL
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2024 03 20
News at 10.30am (CL). FOMC at 2pm, expected to be a catalyst!
Indexes: FOMC, expect a catalyst (and to the upside)
Currencies: Flat on MBT.
Commodities: CL, RB longs in progress.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: long setup in the works on daily ZL
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 03 19
News at 8.30am EDT
Note: very little happening. Trailing CL. Indexes need a catalyst. No video necessary. Join us at 4pm EDT tomorrow!
Indexes: very little happening. This will change, pay attention. Standing by.
Currencies: Trailing MBT.
Commodities: CL long in progress. RB ~1R.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2024 03 18
Indexes: very little clarity, waiting for clues. Watching RTY for a potential long.
Currencies: Trailing MBT. 6E long potential on daily.
Commodities: CL. RB longs in progress on daily.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZL rips
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 03 15
News at 9.15am EDT
Indexes: reboot, waiting for clues. Could be a buying opportunity. See notes on YM below.
Currencies: Trailing MBT. 6E long idea off the list
Commodities: CL long triggered. RB moves as expected. SI moves up, pullback on GC.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF thursday, 2024 03 14
News at 8.30am EDT (Expect a catalyst, see notes in video)
Indexes: longs in progress (ES, YM), watch 8.30am if not long yet
Currencies: Trailing MBT. Long setup on on 6E
Commodities: CL long triggered. Long setup on SI, pullback on GC.
Financials: Long setups dropped
Agriculturals: monitoring ZL for long
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Wednesday, 2024 03 13
News at 10.30am EDT (CL)
Indexes: longs in progress (ES, YM)
Currencies: Trailing MBT. Long setup on on 6E
Commodities: CL about to get going. Long setup on SI, pullback on GC.
Financials: Long setups
Agriculturals: monitoring ZL for long
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 03 12
News at 8.30am EDT
Indexes: ready to take new longs
Currencies: Trailing MBT. Long setups on several majors
Commodities: CL could get going. Long setup on SI.
Financials: Long setups
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF monday, 2024 03 11
No News.
Indexes: ready to take new longs, just be mindful of signs this rally may be losing steam (see YM). Long on RTY with target 2400.
Currencies: Trailing MBT.
Commodities: CL lack of momentum. GC hits 2200, looking to go long on SI.
Financials: looking for next long on daily
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 03 08
News at 8.30am ET, expect a catalyst
Indexes: 1R on the ES, longs in progress on NQ, RTY
Currencies: MBT long setup. DX weakness (see GC, BTC)
Commodities: study: CL lack of momentum: one way a long setup can evolve. GC, SI march on.
Financials: potential measured move on weekly ZB, consider a long position
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF thursday, 2024 03 07
News at 8.30am ET, expect a catalyst
Note: important times: equities, metals, treasuries, all on the move! It pays to pay attention!
Also: I’m passing through airports today, so no video at this time. Keep an eye on the intraday folder. But job for today is clear, see below. Which one you’ll persue, depends on your risk rules and wider trading plan. Don’t get chopped up in the details. Mindful trading!
Indexes: bullflags, get ready
Currencies: MBT hits 70, ready for next bullflag.
Commodities: monitoring CL for long. GC, SI march on.
Financials: potential measured move on weekly ZB, consider a long position
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2024 03 06
News.
Indexes: flat, monitoring RTY for a potential long. YM: our “no trigger, no harm” entry method
Currencies: MBT hits 70.
Commodities: monitoring CL . GC, SI monitoring for pullback
Financials: 1Rs on ZB, ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 03 05
News.
Note: mark rotation: reboot on the indexes, currencies moving, potential longs on treasuries, metals move.
Indexes: flat, RTY retest of previous pivot completed
Currencies: MBT trailing to 70. 6A, 6N on the move, watching 6E
Commodities: CL has triggered, but no momentum. GC, SI monitoring for pullback
Financials: long setups ZB, ZN
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2024 03 04
News.
Note: Good times are times to reflect: the biggest enemy of any trader is overconfidence. So keep the old Japanese saying in mind: what do you do after you won a battle? “Tighten your helmets.”
Indexes: Stellar work! 1Rs or more. Manage longs. RTY may still be ahead.
Currencies: MBT trailing to 70. 6A, 6N are asleep.
Commodities: CL has triggered. GC, SI have broken out (as projected, see day before)
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 03 01
News at 10am EST
Indexes: managing longs on ES, NQ, RTY
Currencies: MBT on a roll.
Commodities: CL triggering. GC, SI monitoring for longs
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF thursday, 2024 02 29
News at 8.30am EST.
Indexes: patience: looking for longs on the indexes (no change since yesterday)
Currencies: MBT on a roll. Cross-currents on currencies (6A, 6E)
Commodities: CL long setup, waiting for trigger
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2024 02 28
News at 8.30am, 10.30am (CL) EST.
Indexes: looking for longs on the indexes (no change since yesterday)
Currencies: MBT on a roll. 6A daily triggering. Looking for short on 6E
Commodities: CL long setup, waiting for trigger
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 02 27
News at 8.30am, 10am EST.
Indexes: looking for longs on the indexes, see video for details
Currencies: MBT 1R with more expected.
Commodities: CL long setup
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2024 02 26
News.
Indexes: 0.75R on the ES, reason to take profits or tighten stops, manage any longs in progress, make sure you get paid
Currencies: MBT long in progress.
Commodities: CL no trigger. GC 0.9R, SI triggering
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 02 23
No News.
Indexes: good work, longs in progress
Currencies: MBT long in progress. Standing by on majors.
Commodities: long breakout expected on daily CL
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZW moves as expected (no position)
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF thursday, 2024 02 22
News at 8.30am, 10am, 11am EST
Indexes: markets pressing through resistence on weekly. Looking to go long!
Currencies: MBT long in progress. Standing by on majors.
Commodities: standing by. NG may be putting in a bottom.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: ZW a potential measured move in the works
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF wednesday, 2024 02 21
News at 2pm FOMC, no new trades planned for today
No video today, standing by.
Indexes: flat
Currencies: MBT long in progress.
Commodities: study: CT typical action after exhaustion.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: big move on ZW, potential bottom
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 02 20
No News.
Indexes: monitoring for long triggers.
Currencies: MBT long in progress. Monitoring 6S for a short.
Commodities: lesson on CL and CT
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Friday, 2024 02 19
US Presidents’ Day. Markets closed.
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Friday, 2024 02 16
News at 8.30am
Indexes: watch yesterday’s video, see charts today.
Currencies: MBT long in progress.
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF THURSDAY, 2024 02 15
News at 8.30am, 9.15am EST
Note: expect the news to be a catalyst (most likely: to the upside).
Indexes: signs of bearflags failing, ready to go long on trigger.
Currencies: 6E flat. MBT long in progress.
Commodities: CT study
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF WEDNESDAY, 2024 02 14
News at 10.30am EST (CL)
Note: reset mode on the indexes, standing by. Be mindful of Thursday’s news item.
Indexes: a change of mood on the indexes. Standing by. See video for details.
Currencies: 6E short in progress. MBT long in progress.
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 02 13
News at 8.30am EST
Note: for context, see yesterday’s video. Apologies for the sound problem!
Indexes: ES 1R. RTY measured move. If still long, manage your positions. More upside expected, monitoring.
Currencies: Monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E. MBT at 50,000, trailing.
Commodities: CT tests major pivot. Monitoring CL for long
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF monday, 2024 02 12
No News.
Indexes: longs in progress. Manage your positions. See notes on RTY/NQ. Monitoring for bullflag on 240m RTY
Currencies: Monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E. Long on MBT, trailing.
Commodities: CT tests major pivot. Monitoring CL for long
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Friday, 2024 02 09
No News.
Indexes: longs in progress. Manage your positions. RTY behaves as expected. Bullish but not blindly bullish, cover your backs.
Currencies: Monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E. Long on MBT (target 50ish)
Commodities: standing by (no chasing CT). GC volatility compression (weekly timeframe), keeping an eye on it.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Thursday, 2024 02 08
News at 8.30am
Indexes: longs in progress. Monitoring the bearflag on the RTY.
Currencies: DX strength, monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E. Long on MBT (target 50ish)
Commodities: CT marches on.
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Wednesday, 2024 02 07
News at 8.30am, 10.30am (CL)
Note: no new info. Price action on the indexes and currencies on Tue consistent with our forecasts.
Indexes: continue to be bullish, potential measured move on RTY
Currencies: DX strength, monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF tuesday, 2024 02 06
No News.
Indexes: continue to be bullish, potential measured move on RTY
Currencies: DX strength, monitoring for shorts on 6A, 6N, 6E
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Monday, 2024 02 05
News.
Indexes: continue to be bullish, potential measured move on RTY
Currencies: standing by
Commodities: standing by
Financials: bullflag, looking for trigger
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF friday, 2024 02 02
News at 8.30am (expect a catalyst)
Indexes: see yesterday’s video to start with
Currencies: long setups on 6B, 6S
Commodities: CT on the move
Financials: looking for next bullflag
Agriculturals: standing by
FOR THE TRADING DAY OF Thursday, 2024 02 01
News at 8.30am, 10am EST
Note: Waiting for clues after the FOMC drama
Indexes: standing by, see video for details
Currencies: short setups on 6A, 6N
Commodities: standing by
Financials: standing by
Agriculturals: standing by
Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.